Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 5 cents and near 11.67. SMH is near 342.0. BOH is near 456.13. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.18. WH is down 5 cents and near 5.62. KWH is down 5 cents and near 5.70. MWH is unch and near 6.57. China is on Holiday. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. UK and Japan economy slipped into recession.
SH is near 11.67. USDA estimated US 2024 soybean acres near 87.5 mil vs 83.6 ly. US 2024/25 carryout 435 despite record crush. Jan NOPA crush was 185.7 vs Dec 195.3 but new record for Jan. Soyoil stocks highest since July. Weekly soybean sales est at 340 mt. Soybeans found resistance due to bearish USDA Ag forum numbers, better SA crop prospects, Fed slowing rate cut and lower China demand. Some short covering overnight on hope China will buy US soybeans once they return from holiday.
CH is near 4.18. Futures remain oversold. USDA estimated US 2024 corn acres near 91.0 mil vs 94.6 ly. US 2024/25 carryout is est at 2,532 mil bu vs 2,172 this year and largest since 1987. Weekly corn sales were at 1,310 mt with Colombia and Mexico best buyers. International Grain Council est World corn crop at 1,234 mmt , up 4 from last month and up 71 mmt from ly. One group est the World corn crop closer to 1,252 mmt. IGC did raise World corn demand 4 mmt to record 1,222 ( this due to lower prices) which left World end stocks near 287 mmt vs 275 ly.
WH is near 5.62. KWH 5.70. MWH 6.57. Australia wheat futures sharply lower. USDA estimated US 2024 wheat acres near 47.0 mil vs 49.6 ly. US 2024/25 carryout is est at 769 mil bu vs 658 this year. One group estimates World 2024 wheat crop near 805 mmt vs 785 this past year. IGC est is near 788 mmt. Weekly wheat sales were 349 mt. Egypt bought Ukraine and Romania wheat.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
