Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is unch. CK is up. WK is up. KWK is up. MWK is. US stocks are higher .US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed near $85. Silver and copper are higher. China is on holiday.
SK is near 11.83. SK bounced off 11.75 support on little new news. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-600 mt vs 263 last week. There is talk of new US soybean policy offering 20 cents more to US farmers who can guarantee deforestation free soybeans. Could this shift EU soybean demand from Brazil to US? China futures were closed for Ching Ming festival. Lower US Dollar and higher Crude oil values may be helping Oilseed futures. Higher soyoil demand and lower soymeal demand is supporting soyoil vs soymeal. Malaysia palmoil futures near 12 month high. Now what? Malaysia palmoil production should increase seasonally. March exports were higher which is dropping stocks. EU RSO prices traded higher on crop weather concerns but farmer sold rally. India turning to buying cheaper sunoil.
CK is near 4.33. CK is back above 4.30 support on little new news. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 800-1,400 mt vs 1,206 last week. Word that China asked importers to stall/halt corn imports weighed on Brazil futures. China trying to increase domestic prices before planting season. USDA China Ag Attaché lowered China 2024/25 imports to 20 mmt. There is new confidence in Ukraine export loadings but increase concern over slowdown in China imports. Fact 2 pct of US corn crop is planted with open planting weather and warmer temps after April 15 offers resistance. Weekly ethanol production was highest for last week.
WK is near 5.58. KWK is near 5.84. MWK is near 6.46. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at -100 to 400 mt vs 339 last week. Morocco est imports down to 5 mmt vs 6.5 ly desoite lower crop. UAE Bank tightened Russia payment policy but Russia allowed more RF/Grain Flower vessels to ship but stopped shipmnets from Aston. Russia is increasing control of exports which is firming Russia wheat prices and may be offering support to US futures. W EU is too wet and more rain is forecast. E EU and Black Sea is too dry. US weather pattern calls for warmer and drier US plains weather. There is no weather premium in wheat futures with USDA Winter wheat 2024 raitings higher than last year with US wheat planted acres below last year.
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