Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are down another 2.6 pct. US S/P is oversold. Crude is lower and near $59. Crude is oversold. Gold is higher. Copper, coffee, cocoa, cotton are lower. Markets now trading 5 US interest rate cuts in 2025. USDA report Thursday.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 9.88. US tariffs are bearish to Asian buyers. China has shipped 21.5 mmt of US soybean to date and have only 600-900 mt left to ship. NE China remains dry. Canada canola oil could be exempt from US tariffs. There is no deal yet on the would allow US soyoil can get preferential treatment for India. Soyoil trade still waiting for news concerning US soyoil RVO. Some fear despite lower US 2025 soybean acres normal weather could drop SN below 9.00. Trade theme, lower board higher basis.
CORN
CN is near 4.65. Japan, Taiwan, S Korea and Vietnam tariffs could be bearish. Vietnam still has 5 mmt 196 mil bu) of US corn to buy. Mexico to corn may be exempt from new tariffs. Tightening World exporters supply helped support corn futures. S/E Brazil forecast is dry. US Delta and SC Midwest forecast is wet. S IL, S IN and OH rains and Delta and SE rains could slow corn plantings there. NE China is dry. Some feel CN resistance is near 5.00 until more is known about final Brazil supply and US summer weather.
WHEAT
WN tested a low near 5.39 before rebounding to 5.42. KWN ended near 5.71. MWN ended near 6.00. EU weather maps suggest light Russia rains over next week. US plains was cold and dry. US SRW crop areas saw heavy rains. AR, TN, KY produce 15 pct of US SRW crop. US SRW export price is lowest of all origin to buyers. Canada wheat into US may be exempted from new tariffs. EU and Russia cash prices rallied. There remains concern about Middle East and North Africa wheat import demand. WN resistance is near 5.60.
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