Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher on possible China/US talks if US shows respect. US Dollar is lower. Gold is sharply higher. USDA will issue first US/World 2025/26 Supply and Demand in May. Most look for higher soybean, corn and wheat carryouts which long-term could be bearish futures. Key is US summer weather. CBOT grains will be closed Friday for Easter holiday.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.45. Dalian soybean, soymeal and palmoil futures were lower. Argentina custom workers called for a 2 day strike. March NOPA soybean crush was at 195 mmt vs 196.4 ly. This slightly below trade est. Soyoil stocks were lower than expected and rallied futures. Some feel stocks may have been lower with soyoil in transit for export not counted. US farmers and traders will watch closely possible US and hina talks. Global demand for US soybean, soymeal and soyoil exports and US summer weather will be key to futures price direction. Matif and Canada rapeseed prices higher.
CORN
CN is near 4.90. Dalian corn futures were little changed. Brazil rains improving the Safrina 2nd crop outlook. Matif corn is near 8 month low. USDA announced 110 mt US corn to Portugal. Some feel final feed and residual could even be lower which raise carryout to closer to 1,500. US Midwest rains offers resistance to futures. South and east rains could slow plantings there. This has also weighed on CN-CZ spread and triggered some buying CZ. US April weather in transition with better rains than March. Key is if a drier pattern returns in May.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.57. KWN is near 5.68. MWN is near 6.18. Potential for US south plains rains is offering resistance to futures. US south and east rains could stress US SRW crop. Matif futures were lower on talk of lower demand. Argentina est 2025/26 wheat crop at 20.5 mmt and second largest ever. Russia large farm stocks are near 9.8 mmt, down 33 pct vs ly 14.6. This suggest final exports below 40 mmt vs USDA 44 and 55.5 ly. US futures in carry with Managed funds record short. US cash basis levels are inverted.
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