Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 18.24
April 18, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are higher.
Mortgage applications in the U.S. fell 1.4% in the week ended June 2, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications to buy a home declined 1.7% and those to refinance a home loan fell 0.7%.
The 2:00 central time April consumer credit report is expected to show a $21.0 billion increase.
Futures continue to overperform the news.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is lower.
German industrial output increased less than expected in April. Production increased 0.3% on the previous month when analysts had anticipated an increase of 0.6%.
U.K. house prices dropped on an annual basis in May for the first time in 11 years, according to mortgage lender Halifax. The average property price fell 1.0% compared with May of last year, which was the first year-on-year decline since December 2012, but was in line with analysts’ forecasts.
Australia’s economy grew at the weakest pace in 1-1/2 years last quarter. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed real gross domestic product increased 0.2% in the first quarter, easing from 0.5% growth in the previous quarter and below forecasts of 0.3%.
Annual growth came in at 2.3%, which also missed forecasts for 2.4% expansion.
The Bank of Canada will hold its monetary policy meeting today. Financial futures markets anticipate its key interest rate will remain unchanged at 4.50%, although there is a chance the bank could resume interest rate hikes.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are mixed and remain above major downtrend lines that were broken on the upside early last week.
There are no major Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 77% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its June 14 policy meeting, and there is a 23% chance of a 25 basis point increase.
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