Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 2 cents and near 12.42. SMZ is near 340.7. BOZ is near 60.50. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.66. WZ is up 5 cents and near 7.87. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 7.96. MWZ is up 9 cents and near 10.53. OZ is near 7.57.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold and Copper are higher. US Fed said inflation transitory. UK Banks set to raise interest rates.
US is dry. Should help corn soybean harvest. Russia dry. Canada is dry. S Brazil drying. Key to today’s trade could be US exports. Soybean, corn and wheat sales below last week bearish? US corn sales est near 700-1,400 mt, soybeans 1,000-2,000, wheat 180-500 mt.
Dalian soybean futures higher soymeal lower. China asking people to stock up on necessities. Matif Canada canola prices lower. Canada canola crush down 1 pct vs USDA est down 26. Limits export.
Soybean futures could see lower price trend due to favorable SA weather and est of higher US supply. Soymeal futures at 5 week high. Soyoil futures 3 week low. Soyoil futures down 8 cents since Oct high. Trade est US soybean crop at 4,484 vs USDA 4,448. Carryout 362 vs USDA 320. US crush margins higher.
Corn futures higher on hope of good US export sales report. Higher supply and farmer selling negative. Bulls are hoping for a friendly USDA report due to higher feed, ethanol and export offset higher crop. Trade est US corn crop at 15,050 vs USDA 15,019. Carryout 1,480 vs USDA 1,500. Numbers negative.
Wheat futures higher on talk of higher Russia export tax and lower Russia and EU exports. US plains dry. Matif and Black Sea wheat futures lower following lower US prices. Russia farmer not selling. Trade est US wheat carryout at 581 vs USDA 580. World wheat end stocks at 276.5 vs USDA 277.2 US wheat export prices remain premium to other sellers especially Black Sea and east Europe.
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