US EPA Chief Delays 45Z Decision

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is lower. Gold, silver and copper are lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton are lower. Cattle and hogs saw some selling Wednesday. Trump making deals in Middle East. Ukraine and Russia talks today. U.S. central Midwest and SW Plains will be dry. Central U.S. heat wave will continue into mid-week followed by cooling. Rain is likely in the central Midwest from NE and KS to N IL and IA next week. Rains in US N plains. EU weather showing rains north and west. China wheat areas hot and dry.

SOYBEANS 

SN is near 10.63. Dalian soybean and soymeal were higher. Palmoil and soyoil were lower. South America soymeal premiums continue to dive lower and looking for demand. BON is sharply lower due to fact US EPA Chief said decision on 45Z will be delayed. This has triggered oil/meal spread liquidation. Trade still feels USDA is too high in their estimate of US 2025/26 soybean exports and too low in carryout estimate. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 200-500 mt vs 376 last week. Argentina Grain Exchange raised their est of the soybean crop to 48.5 mmt vs 45.5 previous. USDA is 49 mmt.

CORN 

CN is near 4.46. Dalian corn futures were lower. Some short covering helped CN on Wednesday. By Sunday US corn planting could be near 75 percent. Trade still feels USDA is too high in their estimate of US 2025/36 corn exports and too low in carryout estimate. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 900-1,500 mt vs 1,662 last week. US weekly ethanol production was down 2.6 pct vs last week. Stocks were up 3.9 pct vs ly. Margins improved with lower corn prices. Argentina Grain Exchange kept their est of the corn crop to 48.5 mmt but reported early corn yields lower than expected. Harvest is 38 pct done. USDA is 50 mmt.

WHEAT  

WN is near 5.25. China wheat areas and Australia are dry. Second day of annual Kansas wheat tour estimated yield at 53.3 vs 42.4 ly and 5 year average of 42.3. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at -200/100 old crop and 250-600 new. Algeria bought 660 mt wheat at $244.50, $5.50 below last years price for same shipping period. Today, Matif futures are near $205 vs $228 ly. WN 5.20 vs 6.00 ly.

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