Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is higher today. In recent weeks flight to quality buying has been a supportive factor as well as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
In addition, interest rate differential expectations recently turned more favorable for the greenback, especially against the European currencies, since the U.S. economy appears to be holding up relatively well compared to the euro zone economy.
Higher prices are likely for the U.S. dollar.
The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany fell to -25.5 heading into September from a revised figure of -24.6 in August, missing the market prediction of -24.3. This marked the lowest reading since May.
Japan’s jobless rate increased to 2.7% in July from the previous month. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was higher than economists’ median forecast of 2.5% and June’s 2.5%.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are lower.
The 9:00 central time August consumer confidence index is expected to be 116.5.
The 9:00 July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is anticipated to be 9.559 million. The Labor Department’s JOLTS report tracks monthly changes in job openings and offers rates on hiring and quits.
The 9:00 June 20-city adjusted Case-Shiller home price index is estimated to show a 1.1% increase.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are mixed.
The Treasury will auction 7-year notes today.
Michael Barr of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2:00.
Financial futures markets are now predicting there is a 79% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its September 20 policy meeting, and there is a 21% probability of a 25 basis point increase.
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