US Dollar Index Steady


The U.S. dollar index is steady today. However, interest rate differential expectations are long-term bearish for the greenback, and lower prices are likely.

The U.K. labour market cooled noticeably last month, with demand for staff and pay growth easing, and staff shortages became less acute. The monthly index of demand for staff from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation declined in November to 54.1 from 56.7 in October, which is the lowest reading since February 2021.

Japan’s economy contracted at a slightly slower pace than initially estimated in the third quarter. The world’s third-largest economy shrank 0.8% on an annualized basis, compared with 1.2% contraction in the preliminary estimate that was released in mid-November. The median forecast called for a 1.1% annualized decline.

Yesterday the Bank of Canada raised its main interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% from 3.75%, which is the highest level in nearly 15 years.


Stock index futures are higher today, after recent weakness that was linked to warnings from major Wall Street bankers of a looming recession.

Jobless claims in the week ended December 3 were 230,000 when 228,000 were expected.

The fundamentals and technicals for stock index futures remain supportive.


The 30-year Treasury bond futures advanced to a 13-week high yesterday high but are lower today.

There are no Federal Reserve speakers today with the Fed’s self-imposed blackout period in force ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Recently the spread between 2-year Treasury and 10-year Treasury yields inverted by over 80 basis points, the most in 41 years, which has recessionary implications.

According to financial futures markets currently, there is a 75.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate by 50 basis points at the December 14  policy meeting and a 25.0% probability that the rate will be hiked by 75 basis points.

The fundamental and technical aspects have turned more supportive for futures.


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