Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 26.24
April 26, 2024
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is steady.
Interest rate differentials remain supportive to the greenback longer term.
The euro zone February consumer price index was up 2.6%, which compares to the forecast of a gain of 2.5%. In January the consumer price index increased 2.8%.
The euro zone’s February manufacturing PMI was 46.5 when 46.1 was predicted
Unemployment in the euro area in January ticked lower to a record low of 6.4%, which was in line with economists’ expectations. Figures for previous months were revised higher to a level of 6.5%.
The Nationwide House Price Index in the U.K. increased by 1.2% year-on-year in February 2024, ending a 12-month period of declines and exceeding market expectations of a 0.7% increase.
Japan’s January jobless rate was 2.4% as expected.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mixed.
The 8:45 central time February PMI manufacturing final is expected to be 51.5.
The 9:00 February Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 49.5.
The 9:00 February consumer sentiment index is estimated to be 79.6 and the 9:00 January construction spending report is predicted to show a 0.2% increase.
The fundamentals are mostly bullish, while and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Federal Reserve speakers today are Christopher Waller and Lorie Logan on a panel at 9:15, Rafael Bostic at 11:15, Mary Daly at 12:30 and Adriana Kugler at 2:30.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 3.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the March 20 meeting, and there is a 97% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
The fundamentals and technicals remain bearish on balance for futures.
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