Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures extended yesterday’s gains today.
Futures are higher, as recent comments from Federal Reserve officials helped ease concerns that rising inflation could slow economic growth or prompt the central bank to suddenly tighten policy.
There are three 9:00 central time reports. The April new home sales report is expected to show 955,000. The May consumer confidence index is anticipated to be 119.5 and the May Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index is predicted to be 15.
A congestion pattern is forming now that most likely will be followed by an upside breakout.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index fell to a four-month low in the overnight trade.
Lower prices are likely for the greenback longer term.
The euro currency is higher after the Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany increased to 99.2 in May, which is the highest level since May 2019 and above market expectations of 98.2.
The British pound is lower on news that the Confederation of British Industry’s distributive trades survey’s retail sales balance in the U.K. came in weaker than estimated. The survey index eased to 18 in May 2021 from a near three-year high of 20 in the previous month but below forecasts of 30.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are higher after Federal Reserve officials on Monday played down the risk of “non-transitory” inflation.
Randal Quarles of the Federal Reserve will speak at 9:00.
The Treasury will auction two-year notes.
In my minority view, I am seeing indications that the global economy will continue to improve, but growth may not be as strong as many analysts are predicting.
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