Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower. Crude is unch but near $66.37. US is delaying tariffs on Auto imports. Some hear US could also delay tariffs on some Ag goods especially fertilizer and eggs.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.21. SN gained on SX. C/N Brazil and C/S Argentina saw rains. IMEA raised est of MG soybean production 2.5 mmt. China Dalian soybean, soymeal futures were lower. Palmoil was higher. China announced they will auction 3 mmt soybean from reserve. Trade est of Brazil soybean crop at 169.1 mmt vs USDA 169 and Argentina 48.8 mmt vs USDA 49. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 379 mil bu vs USDA 380. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 300-550 mt vs 410 last week. Soyoil sales are est at 20-45 mt vs 18 last week.
CORN
CK is near 4.58. C/N Brazil and C/S Argentina saw rains. US NW Midwest is dry. Rains in E WCB, ECB and SE. Mexico will have a conversation with US on tariffs. Mexico could leave corn off retaliatory list. US could reprieve some Ag imports from tariffs. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers and now gulf to North Africa. Weekly US corn export sales are esat at 700-1,000 mt vs 794 last week. Trade est Brazil corn crop at 126.0 mmt vs USDA 126.0 and Argentina at 49.0 mmt vs USDA 50.0. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout at 1,516 mil bu vs USDA 1,540. Korea is back tendering for corn with prices near $240 vs $260 2 weeks ago.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.51. KWK is near 5.60. MWK is near 5.91. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Black Sea is also dry. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 797 mil bu vs USDA 794. Trade looks for USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia exports but this could be offset by lower imports and World end stocks. US SRW export prices have went from top of World matrix to bottom in just 2 weeks. Still, Argentina and Australia prices are now competitive to North Africa. Matif wheat futures were unch with higher Euro negative but higher US futures positive. Syria new government is tender for first wheat tender.
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