Written Commentary
Ag Market View for April 22.25
April 22, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Fed Chairman at Congress today. Grains are mixed. SK is unch and near 11.49. SMK is near 327.0. BOK is near 45.47. CK is unch and near 4.25. WK is down 7 cents and near 5.43. KWK is down 10 cents and near 5.58. MWK is down 8 cents and near 6.47. USDA Friday. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. China announced $139 billion ultralong bonds to boost business activity.
SK is near 11.49. Managed funds added to net shorts in soybean futures. SK support 11.28. There remains uncertainty over size of Brazil soybean crop and China soybean import demand. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. There also remains concern over drop in Brazil farmer profits, yields, export demand and negative export margins. World vegoil prices are higher. Indonesia announce higher domestic biofuel mandate. Brazil soybean export prices at $413 vs US $447. Argentina soymeal export price near $372 vs US $397. EU oilseed imports down vs ly.
CK is near 4.25. CK support 4.08. Managed funds continue to add to large net shorts in corn futures. China announced new producer cost insurance program to try to increase corn production 50 mmt. US fob price $189 vs Ukraine $168. US midwest warm and dry. Should help early plantings. EU corn imports down 40 pct. Exports higher. There remains uncertainrty over size of Brazil corn crop. China is buying cheaper Ukraine corn. Dalian corn futures were higher.
Wheat futures are lower and new lows. Managed funds continue to add to large net shorts in wheat futures. Russia export price is near $198 vs US SRW $239. Algeria bot 600 mt wheat $38 cheaper than last tender. Australia futures lower on lower export demand. Canada 2024 wheat acres est at 26.7 mil acres vs 27.0 ly. Below normal US, EU and Black Sea 2024 weather and bottom in Russia and EU prices is needed to push futures higher.
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