Traders Focus on Jackson Hole


Stock index futures are higher due to mostly better than predicted corporate earnings reports.

The 9:00 central time July existing home sales report is expected to show 4.150 million.

The 9:00 August Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index is anticipated to be -7.

Traders will likely shift their focus toward the upcoming annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which will start on Thursday.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak on Friday morning and is expected to deliver an economic outlook and interest rate guidance for September monetary policy.

Many analysts believe Powell’s comments will be hawkish on balance.


The U.S. dollar index remains near two-month highs. In recent weeks flight to quality buying has been a supportive factor as well as the recently more hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

The U.S. dollar index will probably remain firm in advance of Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech on Friday at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium.

Currently, market expectations indicate a 70% probability that the European Central Bank will hike its deposit rate to 4.0% at its policy meeting on September 14, with approximately a 30% chance of the rate remaining unchanged.

The Confederation of British Industry survey’s total order book balance fell six points from the previous month to  -15 in August 2023, falling under of market expectations of -13. Also, the gauge measuring output for the last three months declined to  -19 from +3 in July, marking the lowest level since September 2020.


Futures are mixed  to lower on news that Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin this morning said the Fed needs to achieve the 2.0% inflation target to ensure its credibility.

The majority of Federal Reserve policymakers believe interest rates have not peaked as labor market conditions remain tight and strong wage growth increased the disposable income of households.

Financial futures markets are now predicting there is an 84% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its September 20 policy meeting, and there is a 16% probability of a 25 basis point increase.

Futures are likely to remain under pressure in advance of the Jackson Hole Symposium.


Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now