Trade Sorts Out USDA Numbers


Grains are mixed. SX is up 7 cents and near 13.48. SMZ is near 358.9. BOZ is near 62.15. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.72. WZ is up 8 cents and near 7.73. KWZ is up 5 cents and near 7.56. MWZ is up 8 cents and near 9.27. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude oil is lower. Gold is higher.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 56 1/2 in SRW, up 68 3/4 in HRW, up 35 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 25 1/2; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal up $4.10; Soyoil down 0.90.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 47 yuan ; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil down 34; Palm oil down 54; Corn up 15 — Malasyian Palm is up 31. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 31 ringgit (+0.69%) at 4505 amid pressure from weakening prices of soybean oil and concerns about sluggish demand.

Trade is trying to deep dive into latest USDA numbers to find new values. Soybean market now up to demand. World corn is tight and USDA may be too low in US export demand. Wheat has record low World exporters stocks to use ratio and forecast of higher prices.

USDA est US corn yield near 174.6 vs USDA 179.5, soybeans 50.0 vs USDA 50.8. USDA est US 21/22 corn carryout 1,242 vs USDA 1,432, soybean 155 vs 155 and wheat 627 vs 665. Trade est US 21/22 corn carryout near 850, soybean 125 and wheat 555. USDA est World 21/22 corn stocks 284.6 mmt vs USDA 291.6, soya 92.8 vs 94.5.

Wheat 288.8 vs 291.7. Trade looking at record low World wheat exports stocks to use ratio. WH22 high 8.75-9.00? US 2022 wheat acres need to be up 2 mil to keep US 2022/23 carryout from dropping below 500. US wheat farmers were big sellers of new crop wheat on rally. Russia crop drop bullish prices.

Brazil corn crop could drop another 2-3 mmt. US exports up another 400 mil bu. CZ +6.00 in Oct. US farmers were big sellers of corn on rally. USDA FSA acres suggest final corn acres +500-700 thousand.

Despite USDA lowering US soybean crush/exports stocks to use ratio record low. Key is China demand. US ECB soybean yield record 59.1 bpa. WCB 45.5 and down 2.1 from last year and lowest in 8 year. USDA est Brazil 2022 soybean crop at 144 mmt. Planting starts Sep 16. Weather dry. SX support 13.00

Forecast of increase chance of La Nina could keep Brazil and Argentina dry. Delay corn/soya plantings.

On USDA Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 12,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 1,000 soybeans, 1,000 soymeal, even soyoil  and 11,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 25,000 SRW Wheat; long 266,000 Corn; net long 65,000 Soybeans; net long 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 66,000 lots of soyoil.

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