Trade Mostly Lower Ahead of Weekly Export Sales

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Mostly lower trade across the Ag space this AM ahead of weekly export sales data.  Soybean meal prices have taken over as the upside leader while closing a gap on the weekly chart from July-24.  Speculative traders continue to add to already record long holdings.  Energy prices are lower as the recently damaged pipeline in Saudi Arabia may be reopened sooner than expected.  Spot WTI crude oil is down $2.75 per barrel at $99.70 while RBOB is down $.07 per gallon with HO $.19 lower.  Heavy rain continues to track across the N. Midwest slowing crop maturation and delaying early harvest progress.  Hot and dry across the S. Midwest and Delta region, beneficial for harvest activities.  This pattern looks to continue for at least another week.  Week 2 of the outlook has above normal temperatures across the nation’s midsection with normal to below normal precipitation while better prospects for rain in the W. plains.  In Argentina scattered rains in Buenos Aires and the far north with above normal temperatures throughout.  In Brazil, heavy rains continue to target the mid-south where temperatures hold at below normal readings.  Hot/dry in W. Europe with scattered showers in the East.  Improved prospects for rain in Ukraine.  The US $$ is steady after jumping out to a 7-week high yesterday after the Fed. Reserve raised interest rates 25 bp, the first increase in 3 years.  US stock indices are higher.

 Corn: 

Dec-26 futures are down $.03 at $5.31 while holding within yesterday’s range.  Corn bulls remain hopeful the Trump/Xi meeting this month will result in China’s purchase of US corn.  Yesterday the Senate Ag. Committee advanced their farm bill to the full Senate floor by a vote of 12-11 that would include the year round sale of E-15.  It appears unlikely however the Senate will vote on the bill ahead of November elections.  France lowered their corn export forecast from the 2026 harvest to only 2.5 mmt, down 57% YOY.  US export sales are expected to range from 28-78 mil. bu.  Friday’s COF report is expected to show feedlots held 11.279 mil. head of cattle as of Sept. 1^st, up 1.8% from YA.  Placements in Aug-26 are expected to be down 3.2% from YA while marketings off 3.9%.

Soybeans: 

Nov-26 beans are down $.02 ½ at $13.18 in 2-sided trade overnight.  Oct-26 meal is up $6.00 at $367 trading to a fresh 2 ½ year high.  Oct-26 oil is down 85 points at 68.34 with next support at the September low at 67.77.  Crush margins are up $.03 ½ at $2.53 ½ bu. with soybean meal PV reaching a 7-month high at 51.9%.  Chinese demand interest, slower acreage expansion in Brazil along with weather threats from a the “super El Nino” provide underlying support to the soybean complex.  Record speculative length may limit further price appreciation in the short term.  India is considering lowering its vegetable oil import tax to curb food inflation while Indonesia indicates it will keep its biodiesel blending mandate at 50% into 2027, shelving plans to move to 60% until at least 2028.  The trade remains hopeful that US/China will drop reciprocal tariffs at next week’s Trump/Xi summit in Washington.  Export sales are expected to range from 32-88 mil. bu., meal 150-600k tons and oil -10 – 10k tons.

Wheat: 

Prices range from $.07 to $.14 lower after seeing 2-sided trade overnight.  CGO Dec-26 is down $.13 ¼ at $7.17 ½, KC Dec-26 is $.11 ½ lower at $7.88, while Dec-26 MIAX is $.07 lower at $7.49.  Better prospects for rains in the US plains is weighing on wheat valuations.  In addition IKAR suggests Russian exports in Sept-26 may exceed 2 mmt, above their previous forecast of 1.5-2 mmt.  Russian missile strikes overnight damaged cargo vessels near the port of Chornomorsk and Odesa while also damaging a bridge key to shipping grain to the Danube ports.  US export sales are expected to range from 6-18 mil bu.

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