The Ghost in the Machine Q1 2023

Welcome to the Q1 2023 edition of the Ghost in the Machine

Welcome to the Q1 edition of the Ghost In The Machine, as the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has passed and an end to the tragic and devastating war does not appear to be in sight.
Western governments have sought to impose onerous sanctions on trade with Russia, above all on oil and gas exports. But as is often the case, efforts to circumvent sanctions tend to proliferate, in this case, this has seen the emergence of a fleet of Russian ‘ghost ships’.
US wheat exports have been in decline for decades, but could production be increased to help fill gaps due to lower Black Sea output?
Sugar prices have reached lofty levels to start the year, despite what appears to be a less challenging production environment, we take a closer look at the supply and demand outlook dynamics.
Central bank gold purchases soared in 2022, but will this continue in 2023, and what factors might sustain their demand?
ESG investment products had a torrid year in 2022, and while a good many column inches have been devoted to ‘greenwashing’, this is now giving way to ‘green hushing’, referring to companies deliberately underreporting their sustainable practices.
There has been a persistent upside skew to the pricing of grains and oilseeds options since 2007, ostensibly flying in the face of the ‘efficient market hypothesis’, so what factors might be in play to drive this skew?
Markets have been in a tussle with major central banks on the outlook for inflation and what this implies in terms of their respective ‘terminal rates’ since mid-2022, but risk asset appetite has often appeared to be at odds with upward adjustments to rate expectations. A closer look at the fluctuations in the balance sheets of the BoJ and PBoC, rather than those of the Fed and ECB appears to be necessary.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now