Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are mixed. SX is down 3 cents and near 12.61. SMZ is near 371.3. BOZ is near 58.57. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.701 WZ is up 1 cent and near 8.20. KWZ is up 1 cent and near 8.30. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 10.19.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is sharply higher. Crude is lower. Gold, copper, coffee, cotton and lumber are higher. Bitcoin near key support. Talk US may boycott China winter Olympics and US biofuel mandates could be lower offers resistance.
US Midwest weather dry. EU and Black Sea dry. Argentina has rain in forecast, Brazil weather favorable. US 90 day Midwest weather forecast suggest wet Great lakes. Dry SW and SE. Above temps except PNW. US spring/summer forecast suggest dryness in KS, NE, IA and MO. Expands east and south. Above temps.
Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, palmoil, rapeseed oil, corn higher. China/US talking releasing Crude reserves. Corn futures may be in a 5.40-6.00 range until more is known about US export demand and SA weather. Argentina increasing corn export licenses from 38 mm to 42. Argentina weather has rain in forecast.
Argentina soybean plantings 29 pct vs 32 average. Argentina corn crop rated 91 pct G/E vs 35 ly. SF found resistance near 13.00. 12.50 is key support. Soybean supported by positive US crush margins. Market still concerned long term about slow US export shipping pace and talk US carryout closer to 500. Matif rapeseed continues lower. Canada canola steady on rail outage to Vancouver export unknown.
KC wheat mixed. Canada rail blockage to Vancouver could increase US imports. Dry US spring supportive. Matif wheat futures higher. Large March wheat call traded at $320. Equals $368 fob vs Russia $355. World wheat buyers short buying only hand to mouth. No 2022 coverage. Russia price forecast higher. Australia wheat futures higher on quality worries. Argentina harvest 18 pct. Crop rated 59 G/E vs 17 ly.
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