Written Commentary
USD Index Continues Decline
May 21, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Tax Day. Grains are mixed. US stocks are unch. Traders are reducing stock position due to tariff uncertainty. Crude is lower. US Dollar is unch. Gold is higher. USDA will issue first US/World 2025/26 Supply and Demand in May. Most look for higher soybean, corn and wheat carryouts which longterm could be bearish futures. Key is US summer weather. CBOT grains will be closed Friday for Easter holiday. Old myth, if it rains on Easter Sunday it will rain the next seven Sundays in a row.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.43. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were lower. China March soybean imports were only 3.5 mmt and lowest since 2008. US soybean exports up 11 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Argentina announced they will increase soybean export tax from 26 pct to 33 and products 31 vs 24.5. USDA est US soybean plantings at 2 pct and in line with average. IL 2, IA 1 and AR 14. Trade est March NOPA soybean crush at 197.6 mmt vs 196.4 ly. Global demand for US soybean, soymeal and soyoil exports and US summer weather will be key to futures price direction.
CORN
CN is near 4.95. Dalian corn futures were lower. Brazil rains improved the Safrina 2nd crop outlook. Argentina will increase corn export tax to 12 pct vs 9.5. Matif corn is near 8 month low. Last weeks US 240 mt US corn to Spain that was switched to Asia might now go to Spain. US exports are up 31 pct vs ly and USDA revised up 11. USDA announced 120 mt US corn to Japan. Some feel final feed and residual could even be lower which raise carryout to closer to 1,500. US corn plantings were 4 pct. IL 1, IA 2, NE 1, TX 63. A mix of US Midwest rains and open planting weather offers resistance to futures.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.61. KWN is near 5.66. MWN is near 6.19. Potential for US south plains rains is offering resistance to futures. USDA rated US winter wheat crop 47 pvt G/E vs 48 last week and 55 ly. KS is 43, OK 49, TX 23, MO 69, WA 69. US spring wheat plantings are near 7 pct and near average. Matif futures were lower. New crop sales are record low for mid April. US wheat exports are up 14 pct vs ly and USDA up 16.
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