Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 8.25
July 8, 2025
CRUDE OIL
July Crude Oil is higher this morning on geopolitical anxiety in the wake of Ukraine’s attacks on Russia over the weekend and reduced expectations for the US/Iran nuclear talks. The Ukraine drone attacks in Russian military jets and air infrastructure have raised concerns about Putin’s response. There are also ideas that Ukraine may be in a position to target Russian oil infrastructure. There are reports of a bipartisan effort by Senators Graham and Blumenthal to sanction countries that purchase Russian oil that could be ready for this month’s G-7 summit. Russia/Ukraine peace talks yesterday apparently yielded little. An Iranian diplomat told Reuters that that Iran is drafting a negative response to the latest US proposal. In just a week the prospects for Iranian and Russian oil supply hitting the open market have disappeared. Wildfires burning in Alberta, Canada have affected more than 344,000 barrels per day of oil sands production, or about 7% of the country’s overall crude oil output, according to Reuters calculations.
NATURAL GAS
July Natural Gas prices eased overnight following a modest rally yesterday. Reuters reported that data from LSEG showed US LNG exports fell to 8.9 million metric tons in May, down from a record 9.3 million in April, due to plant outages and maintenance. There were also reports that Chinese demand for US LNG has softened due to stronger domestic production, pipeline imports, renewable generation and weak industrial demand. China is the world’s largest LNG user, and there are reports that they have been reselling US LNG to avoid paying retaliatory tariffs. The US 6-10 and 8-14 weather forecasts call for a relatively small area of below normal temperature and a large ring of near normal centered in the western Midwest, with above normal temps dominating in the West, South and East. This could bring normal or perhaps above cooling demand next week.
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