Sugar Firms on India Supply

SUGAR

March Sugar was higher early Monday and for the moment appeared to have rejected last Thursday’s low. An Indian government official said on Thursday that their nation’s 2025/26 sugar production was estimated at 30.9 million metric tons, which would be up 18% from the previous year. They also stated that the country will manage the excess by allowing exports. The government had previously announced that it would allow exports of 1.5 million metric tons in 2026 (up from 1.0 million in 2024/25), but this latest update has sparked rumors they would increase it further. Cane crushers and exporters have been lobbying for the government to allow 2.0 million or more. However, Indian exporters have not had much luck putting deals together because domestic prices have been above the world price, though traders have said the domestic price should reach parity with the world price by January, if the government does not intervene to raise the domestic price. The Brazilian real has fallen to its lowest level since August after reaching a one and a half year high in November and is near the middle of a four-year range. Further weakness in the real could encourage Brazilian selling.

COCOA

March Cocoa was higher early Monday following what may have been a larger than expected decline in cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports for the week ending December 21. Arrivals totaled 74,000 metric tons for the week, down from 91,000 the previous week and 77,000 for the same week a year ago. This was also the first time they had been below year ago levels since October 26. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began on October 1 have reached 968,000 tons, down from 972,000 a year ago but up from 747,000 in 2023/24. The five year average is 991,000. ICE cocoa stocks fell by 1,160 bags on Friday to 1.642 million, their lowest since March 13. Stocks declined 17,469 bags last week.

COTTON

March Cotton has managed a modest recovery off last Tuesday’s contract low, but the downtrend is intact with the market not getting much support from US export sales. USDA will release another export sales update Monday morning, this one covering the week ending December 4, as they work to catch up from the government shutdown. Thursday’s update (for the week ending November 27) showed net sales of 135,886 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 4,488 for 2026/27 for a total of 140,374. This was down from 151,520 the previous week and was the lowest since October 30. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 had reached 5.725 million bales, down from 6.688 million at this time last year and below the five-year average of 8.479 million. Sales had reached 51% of the USDA forecast versus a five-year average of 68% for this point in the marketing year.

COFFEE

March Coffee fell to its lowest level since September 24 on Friday and is close to testing the low of a four-month consolidation, which could be a significant from a technical perspective. ICE certified coffee stocks continue to climb in the wake of the lifting of the tariffs on Brazilian imported into the US. Stocks increased by 6,585 bags on Friday to 439,257, the largest since October 30, and they increased 18,660 bags last week. In a report released on Thursday the USDA lowered its forecast for 2025/26 global coffee production from the June release. This may not have been a surprise to the market given that other agencies have been reducing their forecasts as well, but the data does highlight how tight the global market is and how will depend on a strong crop in 2026/27. The update put world coffee output for 2025/26 at a record 178.85 million bags, up from 178.68 million forecast in June. However, arabica production was revised down to 95.52 million from 97.02 million previously and 100.20 million in 2024/25. Robusta production was revised higher to 83.33 million from 81.66 million previously, which was also a record. Brazil is the largest arabica producer in the world at 38.00 million bags, followed by Colombia at 13.80 million and Ethiopia at 11.56 million. Vietnam is the largest robusta producer at 29.60 million bags, followed by Brazil at 25.00 million and Indonesia at 11.00 million. The report also put global ending stocks of coffee for 2025/26 at 20.15 million bags, down from 22.82 million estimate in Juen at 21.31 million in 2024/25. This is the tightest on record going back to at least 1960. This leaves the stocks/usage ratio at 11.1%, also the tightest on record. Brazil growing areas received rain over the weekend, but conditions are expected to dry this week. Most coffee production areas in Vietnam were dry, which is not unusual at this time of year and is viewed as beneficial for crop maturation and harvesting.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.