Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 26.24
April 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mixed.
The 8:45 central time May PMI composite is expected to be 54.5.
The 9:00 April factory orders report is anticipated to show a 0.8% increase.
The 9:00 May Institute for Supply Management services index is predicted to be 52.0.
Futures continue to overperform the news.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index firmed as traders price in higher interest rates for longer.
The euro zone May Services PMI was 55.1 when 55.9 was estimated.
Producer price inflation in the euro area declined to 1.0% year-on-year in April 2023, following a downward revision from the previous month’s 5.5% and missing market expectations of 1.4%.
The final S&P Global/CIPS U.K. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 55.2, which is slightly down from April’s one-year high of 55.9.
Japan’s service sector activity expanded at a record rate in May. The final au Jibun Bank Japan Services purchasing managers’ index increased to a seasonally adjusted 55.9 last month from the previous peak of 55.4 in April.
The Bank of Canada will hold its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Financial futures markets anticipate its key interest rate will remain unchanged at 4.50%, although there is a chance the bank could resume interest rate hikes.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are mostly lower but remain above major downtrend lines that were broken on the upside early last week.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 76% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its June 14 policy meeting, and there is a 24% chance of a 25 basis point increase.
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