Stock Index Futures Likely to Firm


Stock index futures are higher.

screen trading

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

There are no Federal Reserve speakers ahead of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee, which is in keeping with the Federal Reserve’s self-imposed blackout period.

Without the headwind of hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, stock index futures prices will probably trend higher in the first part of the week.


The U.S. dollar index is lower. Now is a good time to get neutral, at least in the short term, without the support from hawkish Federal Reserve officials.

Longer term, interest rate differential expectations remain favorable for the greenback, especially against the European currencies, since the U.S. economy appears to be holding up relatively well compared to economies in Europe.

The euro zone economy will grow slower than previously predicted this year and in 2023, according to an estimate from the European Commission.

Economists see the European Central Bank hiking interest rates one more time to limit inflation either at its September 14 policy meeting or at the October meeting.

The Japanese yen advanced against the U.S. dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said  the central bank could end its negative interest rate policy when its 2.0% inflation target is sustainability achieved.


Futures are steady to higher at the front of the yield  curve, and lower at the middle and long end of the curve.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased to the 4.3%, approaching the 15-year high of 4.34% that was touched on August 22.

The Treasury will auction three-year notes today.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep its fed funds rate steady this month, while the probability of a quarter-point hike later in the year has been increasing.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 93% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its September 20 policy meeting, and there is a 7% probability of a 25 basis point increase.

However, there is a 45% probability that the FOMC will hike its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its November 1 policy meeting.


Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now