Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 3.24
May 3, 2024
by Alan Bush
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures are higher.
Jobless claims in the week ended April 18 were 4.427 million when 4.250 million were expected.
The 8:45 central time April flash manufacturing PMI is expected to be 35.5.
The 9:00 March new home sales report is anticipated to be 643,000 and the 9:00 April Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing index is estimated to be negative 33.
Stock index futures are performing well for the news.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar is higher but gave back some of its overnight gains when the U.S. jobless claims report was released.
The euro currency is lower after preliminary surveys of French and German purchasing managers gauges hit record lows in April.
In addition, the German April manufacturing PMI flash estimate was 34.4, which compares to the forecast of 39.0.
The Swiss franc is lower. In its updated forecasts, the Swiss government said it expects the GDP to contract by 6.7% in 2020. However, the government anticipates the economy will recover slowly in 2021 with an annual growth of 5.2%.
The British pound is higher despite news that U.K. manufacturers reported the fastest declines in output volumes and total new orders since 2009 in the three months to April, according to the latest CBI quarterly Industrial Trends Survey.
The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher due to a further recovery in crude oil prices.
In the longer-term analysis there are no major disparities in interest rate differential expectations in the currency markets with all the major central banks adding more accommodation to their banking systems in one form or another.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Prices are mixed.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked up to 0.625%, from 0.618% yesterday.
The 30-year Treasury bond futures remain in a broadly based congestion pattern, as the main fundamental influences affecting the long end of the curve are offsetting.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
