Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 3.24
May 3, 2024
by Alan Bush, ADMIS Senior Financial Economist
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures gapped higher and the S&P 500 is now set for its third weekly gain in four due to a variety of global stimulus efforts.
The 9:00 central time March leading indicators report is expected to show a 7.0% decline.
Gap higher openings for U.S. stock index futures, which appear to be breakaway gaps, are improving the technical picture.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar is lower and remains in a triangle congestion pattern.
The euro currency is higher despite news that the annual inflation rate was 0.7% in March 2020, which is down from 1.2% in February. A year earlier the rate was 1.4%.
New car sales in the European Union fell 55.1% in March, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. Also, new car registrations, which are a proxy for sales, fell to 567,308 vehicles in March from 1.26 million last year.
The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher despite lower crude oil prices.
In the longer-term analysis there are no major disparities in interest rate differential expectations in the currency markets with all the major central banks adding more accommodation to their banking systems in one form or another.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are steady at the front of the curve and lower at the back of the curve. This reflects a more normal yield curve.
Futures are in a broadly based congestion pattern, as the main fundamental influences are offsetting.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
