Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SF is down 7 cents and near 13.78. SMF is near 447.5. BOF is near 52.24. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.87. WH is down 4 cents and near 5.83. KWH is down 2 cents and near 6.46. MWH is down 1 cent and near 7.47. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US avoided Friday shutdown.
SF is near 13.78. EU and GFS 6-10 Brazil C/N forecast has showers. Dryness returns to C/N Brazil early in Dec. Brazil farmers waiting for next weeks rains. Argentina on hold until after weekend elections and return of normal rains. US Oct NOPA crush was a record 189 mil bu. Some look for final US crush 20 mil bu higher. End of Oct NOPA soyoil stocks were 1,099 mil lbs and near Dec,2014 record low. Soyoil yield dropped to 3 year low. Dalian palmoil and soyoil prices saw some profit taking. Weekly Soybean export sales est at 2,900-4,500. Some could see final exports down 15 mil bu.
CH is near 4.87. US domestic basis firmed on end of harvest and slow farmer selling. There remains too much rain in S Brazil. EU and GFS 6-10 Brazil C/N forecast has showers. Dryness returns to C/N Brazil early in Dec. Brazil farmer has slowed cash sales due to weather. Farmer also slowed 2nd crop plantings. Trade watching if new insurance policy will increase Ukraine exports. Trade will be closely watching Argentina elections this weekend. Weekly corn export sales are est 900-1,500 mt. Some could see final exports down 100 mil bu.
Wheat futures are lower. Russia is still offering wheat exports at lower prices. Much talk about record large fund short in MWZ. HRW gaining on SRW. HRS also gaining on SRW as demand for higher protein wheat offers support to HRW and HRS vs SRW. Weekly wheat export sales are est near 250-500 mt.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
