Starting Off With Lower Grains

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grains are lower. SH is down 12 cents and near 13.30. SMH is near 394.4. BOH is near 50.36. CH is down 4 cents and near 4.81. WH is down 7 cents and near 6.18. KWH is down 5 cents and near 6.51. MWH is down 3 cents and near 7.25. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Metals are higher. Financial and currency markets awaiting US Central Bank comments.

 

Argentina will devalue its peso currency and slash public spending to reduce the fiscal deficit and revive the economy. Argentina government will trim energy and transportation subsidies as well as cancel any public works projects that have yet to be started. The number of ministries is being cut to nine from 18 and other departments throughout government would also be slashed. The IMF said it welcomed the new measures, saying they would help to stabilize the economy and lead to sustainable growth. Grain market still waiting to see if export taxes are dropped.

CH is lower on talk of new Argentina financial policy. Policy could slow the economy but a boon for farmers. CH remains in a broad 4.70-4.95 range and lacks an export spark to trade over resistance. Domestic ethanol margins are weakening. Ukraine is setting World corn prices with farmers having increase stocks to sell. Dalian corn futures are sharply lower and lowest since Dec, 2021.Trade still worried about higher US Dec 1 stocks and USDA increase US 2023 corn crop in Jan. Corn is following lower Crude.

Soybeans and soymeal futures are lower. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil pirces are lower. Palmoil is lower on lower Malaysian exports There remains good Argentina rains. Potential higher 2024 Argentina supply is negative soymeal futures. C/N Brazil is warm and dry with rains forecasted next week. USDA announced 198 mt US soybeans to unknow.

Wheat futures are lower. Monday’s losses linked to AI selling on talk China is done buying US wheat. Tuesday rally hard to explain but some felt AI bought wheat after sharp break and wheat futures still in uptrend. Overnight, WH rejected the 100 DMA with support near 6.00 and 20 and 50 DMA. Algeria bought 930 mt wheat, Mostly French. Black Sea prices are on the rise. France also has 6 wheat vessels in export line up to China. Wheat futures are already in Holiday mood with AI machines only one trading wheat.

 

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