Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 26.24
April 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock futures are higher following yesterday’s gains that sent both the S&P 500 and Dow futures to new record highs, while the Nasdaq had its best day since early 2023.
There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.
The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is lower.
Interest rate differentials remain supportive to the greenback longer term.
The German economy contracted by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth, which was in line with preliminary estimates.
The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany was slightly higher at 85.5 in February 2024 from 85.2 in January, and was in line with market expectations.
The European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey median consumer expectations for euro area inflation over the next 12 months edged higher to 3.3% in January of 2024 from 3.2% in December.
The Japanese yen weakened on recent disappointing economic data, depreciating past 150 per U.S. dollar.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Yesterday March Treasury bond futures fell to their lowest level since December 4, 2023.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 2.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the March 20 meeting, and there is a 98% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
The fundamentals and technicals remain bearish on balance for futures.
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