Written Commentary
CPI Surprises to the Downside
December 18, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly higher. Stocks are higher. USD is higher. Crude is higher. US is blockading Venezuela oil tankers. US warns of new sanctions on Russia oil if Russia does not agree to a peace deal. Gold is lower. Bitcoin is higher.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.69. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower on talk China will continue to sell soybeans from reserve to make room for US imports. USDA announced 198 mt US soybeans to China and 125 mt US soybeans to unknown. Argentina is dry but rains are forecast for next week but amounts have been reduced. Brazil could see good rains. Drop in India vegoil imports could also increase World vegoil supply especially palmoil. Dalian vegoil prices were lower. Weekly US soybean export sales for week of Nov 27 is est at 600-2,000 mt vs 2,320 the previous week.
CORN
CH is near 4.42. CH held support which triggered a bounce from oversold. USDA announced 177 mt US corn to Mexico. Dalian corn futures were lower and below Dec low. Brazil plantings are near 77 pct and slightly ahead of ly. Brazil rains continue in central north but south is dry. Argentina is dry with showers next week but amounts have been reduced. Both US and Brazil farmers are reluctant sellers. Weekly US corn export sales for week of Nov 27 is est at 1,000-2,000 mt vs 1,843 the previous week.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.06. WH is oversold. KWH is near 5.10. MWH is near 5.62. USDA announced China cancelled 132 mt US white wheat sales. Argentina futures were lower. Normal protein supply could be limited. Australia prices lower and testing Sep low. Matif futures made new contract low. There is little interest in Russia wheat. Ukraine suffering from electrical black outs. Canada est wheat end stocks at 7.5 mmt vs USDA 6.3 and 4.1 ly. Weekly US wheat export sales for week of Nov 27 is est at 250-600 mt vs 361 the previous week.
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