Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 13.24
December 13, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US weekly exports sales today. SX is up 1 cent and near 12.91. SMZ is near 396.9. BOZ is near 54.17. CZ is down 3 cents and near 4.92. WZ is unch and near 5.71. KWZ is unch and near 6.74. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 7.25. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher.
Soybean futures traded sharply higher after USDA lowered US crop and kept US carryout at 220 mil bu. This put more importance on 2024 SA weather. China Dalian soybean futures, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were higher. Parts of Brazil is dry. Argentina remains dry. USDA lowered US 2022/23 supply 24 mil bu. USDA increased US crush 10 mml bu but lowered exports 35. Net result was a 220 carryout. Some feel US farmers should sell some cash on this rally. Still one weather watcher forecast a dry Brazil summer which could eventually rally prices higher. Weekly US export sales are est at 650-1,000 mt vs 808 last week.
Corn futures rallied closer to 5.00 resistance. North and central Brazil remain dry while south is too wet. Argentina remains mostly dry. USDA dropped US supply 160 mil bu. USDA dropped feed/residual 25 mil bu and exports 25 mil bu. Net result was a 110 mil drop in carryout to 2,111. This put more importance on 2024 SA weather. Weekly US export sales are est at 650-900 mt vs 1,816 last week.
Wheat futures traded higher on Thursday following higher corn and soybeans. There is talk of China interest in US gulf SRW. USDA raised US wheat crop 78 mil bu and feed use 30. Net result was a 670 carryout vs 615 in Sep. HRW was up 23 and HRS was up 35. USDA left Argentina, EU and Russia crops unch, lowered Argentina and raised US, Egypt bought 470 mt wheat, 300 Russia, 120 Romanian and 50 Bulgaria. Weekly US export sales are est at 300-500 mt vs 273 last week.
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