Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is down 5 cents and near 13.10. SMH is near 387.4. BOH is near 49.97. CH is unch and near 4.69. WH is up 3 cent sand near 6.13. KWH is up 5 cents and near 6.30. MWH is up 4 cents and near 7.22. Stocks are higher after key reversal lower on Wednesday. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
CH is near 4.69 and new low. Trade still worried about higher US Dec 1 stocks and USDA increase US 2023 corn crop in Jan. Trade awaiting Brazil rain amounts. Low water in Panama canal and increase Red Sea drone attacks has vessels rerouting. All this is increasing World freight rates which offers resistance to commodity prices. Dalian corn futures are finally higher. China still not buying US corn despite talk government wants to add to stocks. Weekly US export sales are est at 800-1,500 mt vs 1,418 last week.
SH is down near the lower end of the 13.00-13.50 range. SMH is below 390. Drop in soymeal values are pushing crush margins lower. BOH is back below 50 cents. Trade awaiting Brazil rain amount. Some est of Brazil crop is now near 155 but higher Argentina crop could offset lower Brazil. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were marginally higher. Soybeans like most commodities are trading lower and searching for new demand. Weekly US export sales are est at 1,500-2,500 mt vs 1,084 last week.
Push pull wheat futures trade continues with overnight futures higher. US south plains rains are forecasted for this week. Increase World wheat buying interesting read but origin is mostly cheaper Russian. Australia wheat futures are sharply lower on talk crop now est at 28 mmt vs USDA 25.5. and export demand has slowed on talk of lower protein. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 200-600 vs 1,490 last week.
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