Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Day after Chicago storm and day before USDA storm. SU is up 16 cents and near 13.64. SX is up 16 cents and near 13.53. SMU is near 356.8. BOU is near 62.85. Palmoil is up sharply. CU is up 4 cents and near 5.54. CZ is up 4 cents and near 5.57. WU is down 4 cents and near 7.22. KWU is down 2 cents and near 7.12. MWU is down 1 cent and near 9.14. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude oil is mixed.
For the week so far wheat prices are unchanged in SRW, up 4 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 15; Soymeal up $0.12; Soyoil up 0.78. For the month to date wheat prices are up 20 in SRW, up 37 1/4 in HRW, up 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 10 3/4; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $5.00; Soyoil down 0.99.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 28 yuan ; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil up 138; Palm oil up 226; Corn down 9 — Malasyian Palm is up 261. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 261 ringgit (+6.21%) at 4461 the most since early 2020 after a report showed stocks down vs predictions for an increase.
US Midwest 10 day weather forecast dry and warm. 10-15 day suggest increase chance for rain. US stocks, energies and most commodities rallied yesterday and US Senate passed infrastructure bill.
Soyoil rallied after Malaysian palmoil month end stocks dropped vs expectation if increas. August soybean futures rallied for 5th straight day and 2 month high before Friday expiration.
US fob corn prices competitive for buyers. Market waiting for bullish? USDA numbers, China buying. Could be some wheat profit talking before USDA. Matif and Black Sea wheat futures new contract highs.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net even corn, bought 3,000 soybeans and 5,000 soyoil and net even soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 14,000 SRW Wheat; long 250,000 Corn; net long 62,000 Soybeans; net long 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 62,000 lots of soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
