Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 20.25
May 20, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. Additional tariffs on China weighed on stocks. China increased tariff for US imports. Crude is lower and near $56. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher. USDA report tomorrow.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.01 on new China tariffs. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were higher. Palmoil and soyoil were lower. China bought 20 cargoes of Brazil May-Aug soybeans. EU crushers bought 2-3 US. Argentina workers called for 2 day strike. Brazil farmers increased cash soybean sales. US Midwest is dry. US season to date exports are up 11 pct vs last year and USDA up 8. Solid US soybean exports rallied SN-SX spread to +30. It appears US soybean export demand looks lower long term but higher short term. Trade est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 379 mil bu vs 380 previous.
CORN
CN is near 4.74. So far, corn futures have been resilient to financial and energy meltdown. US season to date corn exports are up 30 pct vs last year and USDA up 7. Solid exports and lack of new selling rallied CN-CZ spread to +29. Weekly US ethanol production is est lower than last week and stocks near last week. USDA announced Spain bought 240 mt US corn. S/E Brazil forecast is dry. US Delta and SC Midwest forecast is drier. Recent S IL, S IN and OH and Delta and SE rains could slow corn plantings there. Some feel CN resistance is near 5.00 until more is known about final Brazil supply and US summer weather. Brazil farmer increased cash sales. Trade est US 2024/25 corn carryout at 1,510 mil bu vs 1,540 previous.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.53. KWN is near 5.80. MWN is near 6.17. US SRW and now HRW export price is lowest of all origin to buyers. Season to date US wheat exports are up 15 pct vs last year and USDA up 20. WN resistance is near 5.60 then 5.73. Some feel final US wheat yield may be no better than 51.5. Australia futures are near 6 week high. Australia Dollar is lowest since 2020. Matif wheat futures are unchanged waiting for news on retaliatory tariffs on US. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 825 mil bu vs 819 previous.
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