Silver & Gold Likely to Recover

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Durable goods orders in April declined 1.3% when an increase of 0.7% was expected.

The first quarter gross domestic product increased 6.4%, which compares to the anticipated 6.5% increase.

Jobless claims in the week ended May 22 were 406,000 when 450,000 were predicted.

The 9:00 central time April pending home sales index is estimated to show a 2.0% increase.

The 10:00 May Kansas City Federal Reserve manufacturing index is predicated to be 33.

A congestion pattern is forming now that most likely will be followed by an upside breakout.


The U.S. dollar index was higher in the overnight trade but is lower now in response to the mostly bearish 7:30 U.S. economic reports.

In the longer term, pressure on the U.S. dollar is likely as the U.S. budget deficit grows and the Fed’s balance sheet expands. The next support on the daily chart is the early January low of 89.155.

The euro currency was lower in the overnight session on news that the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator in Germany was weaker than expected coming in at -7.0 heading into June from a revised -8.6 in May and compared with market forecasts of -5.2.

The British pound is not far from an over three-year high hit last week, after a Bank of England policymaker signaled that the central bank might start raising interest rates sooner than expected in 2022, if a stronger than forecast economic rebound in the U.K. develops.


Futures are mostly lower after Randal Quarles of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday said that if the U.S. economy turns in the strong performance he now expects, the door will soon open to a debate about slowing the pace of the central bank’s asset-buying stimulus.

Mr. Quarles said in a virtual appearance held by the Brookings Institution, “I am quite optimistic about the path of the economy.” He said that he expects inflation to temporarily exceed the Fed’s 2.0% target.

Futures were able to partially recover when two of the three U.S. economic reports this morning were weaker than predicted.

The Treasury will auction seven-year notes.

In my minority view, I am seeing indications that the global economy will continue to improve, but growth may not be as strong as many analysts are predicting.


Randall Quarles’ comments on tapering pressured futures. However, I would not be surprised to see gold and silver futures  recover from the overnight weakness and trade higher on the day.

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