Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are lower Monday as investors prepared for another week of developments on President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and for the kickoff of large tech company earnings reports.
In addition, there are concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence.
The 9:00 central time March leading indicators report is expected to show a 0.5% decline.
An accommodative Federal Reserve monetary policy remains an underlying long term supportive influence.
CURRENCY FUTURES
March U.S. dollar index futures fell to a three-year low due to concerns about the economic outlook for the U.S., along with renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence.
The euro currency advanced to its strongest level since November 2021.
The greenback has lost approximately 4.6%, with its steepest declines against the euro currency, the Japanese yen, and Swiss franc.
There was additional support for the Japanese yen due to remarks by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda when he said the central bank will raise interest rates if forecasts of underlying inflation materialize.
This stance is expected to be included in the BOJ’s quarterly outlook report, which is due on May 1.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are higher at the front end of the yield curve and lower at the long end of the yield curve.
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said she is cautiously optimistic on the inflation path and maintains calls for gradual interest rate cuts.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note increased above 4.39% on Monday.
The Federal Open Market Committee is likely to lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points four times this year with the first cut reduction potentially coming at the June policy meeting.
The interest rate market futures have recently underperformed the news.
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