Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Non-farm payrolls in November increased 199,000 when a gain of 180,000 was expected.
Private payrolls increased 150,000 as anticipated, and manufacturing payrolls were up 28,000 when a gain of 35,000 was predicted.
The unemployment rate was 3.7% when 3.9% was estimated.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% when up 0.3% was expected, and the labor participation rate was 62.8% as forecast.
The 9:00 central time December consumer sentiment index is anticipated to be 61.9.
Futures are likely to recover from the morning pressure.
The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index quickly advanced when the U.S. employment numbers were released.
However, it is likely that the greenback will give back a substantial portion of its gains later today.
The German consumer price inflation rate was 3.2% year-on-year in November 2023, slowing from October’s 3.8% and marking the lowest level since June 2021.
Japan’s economy contracted at a faster rate than initially estimated in the July-September quarter. The economy shrank 2.9% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, compared with the 2.1% contraction recorded in a preliminary estimate released in mid-November.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
There is a growing consensus among analysts that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate hiking cycle.
There are no Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today, which is in keeping with its self-imposed blackout guideline in advance of its upcoming policy meeting.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 98% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its December 13 policy meeting.
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