Risk-Off Trade Today


Stock index futures are lower across the board due to fears of a weakening global economy.

Lower equity markets overseas followed through into U.S. equity markets.

Today is a risk-off trade.



The U.S. dollar index is higher and remains on track to advance for the fifth straight week. The greenback remains near a two-month high. Flight to quality buying is a supportive factor as well as the recently more hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

The euro zone July consumer price index declined 0.1% on the month as expected and increased 5.3% on the year as anticipated.

Building permits for apartments in Germany declined 27% during the first half of the year.

Retail sales in the U.K. dropped by 1.2% from the previous month in July 2023, which is worse than market estimates of a 0.5% decline, and after a downwardly revised 0.6% growth in June. This was the first contraction in the retail trade since March.

Japan’s headline consumer price index inflation increased 3.3% year-on-year, which is more than expectations for a reading of a 2.5% advance. Excluding fresh food, the core consumer price index increased 3.1% year-on-year as expected, and slowing slightly from the 3.3% gain in June.


Futures are higher across the board due to demand for safer assets.

Since yesterday the probably of the Federal Open Market Committee keeping it fed funds rate unchanged at next month’s policy meeting has increased.

Financial futures markets are now predicting there is a 90% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its September 20 policy meeting, and there is a 10% probability of a 25 basis point increase.


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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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