Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 1 cent and near 11.90. SMZ is near 331.8. BOZ is near 58.39. CZ is up 3 cents and near 5.55. WZ is up 6 cents and near 7.74. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 7.85. MWZ is up 9 cents and near 10.18. OZ is near 7.08.
US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher.
USDA report day. Trade looking for bearish soybean and neutral corn and wheat report. SF dropped below 12.00 in anticipation of bearish report. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil lower.
Central/north Brazil weather normal. S Brazil and east Argentina weather turning drier.
China Oct soybean imports 5.1 mmt vs 8.7 ly. China signed non-binding contracts for 8.4 mmt US beans. US weekly soybean export 2.65 mmt. Season to date exports down 31 pct ly vs USDA 8 pct drop. Matif rapeseed 6 week low. Asian vegoil lower following US. Canada rapeseed oil yield near 20 year low.Trade est US crop up 36 mil bu, 42 mil bu higher carryout. 87 pct US crop harvest. Brazil 67 pct planted.
US corn season to date exports down 21 pct vs USDA 9 pct drop. US prices competitive to buyers. China Dalian corn futures near 6 month highs. Harvest slowed due to rains and snow. Matif corn lower. China Ag Minister reports that rains and snow has had little impact on bumper corn crop estimate. Some estimate that due to higher cost of planting, EU and Black Sea 2022 corn acres down 10-15 pct. Trade estimates US corn crop up 31 mil bu, carryout down only 20 mil bu.
USDA rated US winter wheat crop unch at 45 pct G/E. Trade est US wheat carryout up 1 mil bu. Trade will be watching if USDA lowers Russia and Canada crop, raise EU and raised World wheat trade.
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