Written Commentary
Wkly Futures Mkt Summary May 20.24
May 20, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. USDA report day. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch. Crude is higher and may be finding support near $79. Gold is higher.
SN is near 12.11. Trade est US 2024 soybean crop near 4,440 mil bu vs 4,165 ly. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 339 mil bu vs USDA 340 and estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 431 mil bu. One crop watcher est Brazil soybean crop at 147 mmt vs USDA 155. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil were lower. US soybean export sales commit is est near 1,556 mil bu, down 17 pct vs and USDA est drop of 14.6. USDA could lower their China import est of 105 mmt.
CN is near 4.59. US crop off to a good start. Trade est US 2023/24 carryout at 2,100 mil bu vs USDA 2,122 and estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 2,284 mil bu. One crop watcher est Brazil corn crop at 112 mmt vs USDA 124. He est Argentina corn crop at 47 mmt down 2 mmt from previous est and vs USDA 55. Weekly US corn export commit is up 24 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 26 pct. Dalian corn futures were lower. Ukraine corn crop could be 3 mmt lower than USDA April est.
WN is near 6.54 on World supply worries. Trade estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 786 mil bu due to higher crop. Trade est US 2024 all wheat crop at 1,884 mil bu vs 1,812 ly. Winter wheat 1.311 vs 1,248 ly. Trade est US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 786 mil bu. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 200-600 mt vs 407 last week. France is wet and Ukraine and Russia is cold and dry.
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