Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 8.25
July 8, 2025
CRUDE OIL
July Crude Oil gapped higher overnight and came close to testing the May 21 high. OPEC+ agreed to another 411,000 million barrel per day increase in production for July as expected, but there were some hints of a stronger increase on Friday, so part of the rally may be been from relief that the increase was not larger. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US oil rigs in operation were down 4 rigs to 461 last week. This was down from 496 rigs a year ago and the lowest since November 2021, which is another indication that low prices sparker lower production. Surprise Ukrainian drone attacks on several Russian targets on Sunday in to places as distant as eastern Siberia and the border with Norway may have also increased market anxiety. Russia also stepped up its bombing campaign against Ukraine. The EIA reported on Friday that US crude oil output rose to a monthly record of 13.49 million barrels per day in March, beating the previous all-time high of 13.45 million bpd from last October. Reuters and LSEG reported on Friday that the Big Star, a tanker with 2.1 million barrels of Russian oil onboard, has been waiting near China, as a possible sign of weaker demand. NOAA forecast an above-normal hurricane season this year, raising the specter of unplanned refinery outages.
PRODUCTS
The product markets are sharply higher this morning, in step with the increase in crude oil prices.
NATURAL GAS
July Natural Gas gapped higher overnight, recouping some of its losses from last week. The Baker Hughes rig count showed US natural gas rigs in operation were up 1 rig to 99 last week. This was down from 100 rigs a year ago and below the five-year average of 112. Total rigs in operation fell to 563 from 566 last week and 600 a year ago. The drop in oil & gas rigs last week could mean lower US natural gas production. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts have normal and below normal temps centered on the US Midwest and above normal elsewhere in the lower 48 states. So far, no big heat dome has emerged to spark an extended spell of cooling demand, but some hot weather is expected in the western US that could keep electricity demand running at a seasonal pace overall. NOAA forecast an above-normal hurricane season this year, raising the specter of outages at LNG plants, which could be bearish for natural gas prices, as it would slow outtake from time to time.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
