Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Jan 14.25
January 14, 2025
GOLD
February gold futures are lower in light of reports that the Trump administration is considering softer tariff measures. The Washington Post reported that Trump’s aides are exploring tariff plans that would be applied to every country but would only cover critical imports. This is a major shift from his plans of universal tariffs during the presidential campaign.
In the longer term view, the precious metal remains supported by persistent geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued central bank buying.
SILVER
March silver futures are higher with support coming from China’s optimistic economic outlook, as the country, the world’s largest silver consumer, recently committed to “more proactive” macroeconomic policies and lower interest rates in 2025 to boost economic growth. In a statement on Saturday, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, announced plans to enhance financial support for technology innovation and consumption stimulation to boost economic growth.
The bank also hinted at using new tools to provide liquidity to the stock market and reaffirmed its commitment to lower interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio for banks when appropriate.
Additionally, data revealed that China’s services sector expanded at a seven-month high in December, reflecting strong consumer demand.
Some of today’s gains can be linked to a weaker U.S. dollar.
COPPER
March copper futures are higher and are trading at the highest level since December 16 and are now above a major downtrend line. Investors are reassessing China’s economic outlook, the world’s largest copper consumer. Recently, Beijing announced plans to adopt “more proactive” macroeconomic policies and lower interest rates in 2025 to boost economic growth.
Data revealed that China’s services sector grew at its fastest rate in seven months in December, reflecting strong consumer demand.
Some of today’s strength can be linked to a weaker U.S. dollar.
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