Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 26.24
April 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mixed to lower.
There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his semiannual testimony to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday at 9:00 central time.
The fundamentals are mostly bullish, while and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is a little higher. The greenback is likely to remain firm is advance of Powell’s likely hawkish on balance testimony to Congress.
Interest rate differentials remain supportive to the greenback longer term.
The annual inflation rate in Switzerland edged lower to 1.2% in February 2024 from 1.3% in the prior month, and compared to forecasts of 1.1%.
The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank are both scheduled to announce their policy decisions this week. Forecasts suggest the BoC will likely keep its key interest rate steady at 5.00% on Wednesday, and the ECB is expected to do the same and keep its key interest rate at 4.50% on Thursday.
Australian job advertisements resumed their decline in February after two months of gains. job advertisements fell 2.8% in February from January.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Patrick Harker of the Federal Reserve will speak at 10:00 central time.
Futures are likely to come under pressure in advance of Powell’s likely hawkish on balance testimony to Congress.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 3.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the March 20 meeting, and there is a 97% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
The fundamentals and technicals remain bearish on balance for futures.
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