Written Commentary
Ag Market View for June 17.25
June 17, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. US stocks and USD are lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. There are rumors that Israel may soon attack Iran nuclear facilities. USD lower on talk of slower US economy and if House GOP can pass the tax and spending bill. US Midwest drier but temps are below normal. North half of EU, China wheat areas and west Australia are dry. Forecast reduced Ukraine and Russia rains.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.60. SN is now above all moving averages. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were higher. One group dropped US 2024/25 soybean crush 20 mil vu which raised carryout to 374. They reduced 2025/26 crush 75 mil bu vs USDA but added 200 mil bu to their export guess. This leaves a carryout at 500 mil bu vs USDA 295. EU oilseed imports are up 11 pct, soymeal up 13 pct and vegoil down 24 pct. BON remains volatile due to 45 pct tax incentive uncertain. Matif rapeseed prices are higher on concern over dry German weather.
CORN
CN is near 4.55. CN resistance is near 4.60. Dalian corn ended higher. Most agree with USDA 2024/25 Supply and Demand but some feel US 2025/26 exports are 275 mil bu below USDA which increase carryout closer to 2,025. Talk US corn plantings could be delayed and drop final acres is offering support. Brazil farmer increased cash corn sales. Argentina will increase export tax. Argentina corn cheapest of exporters. EU corn imports up 8 pct, exports down 44 pct. US May 1 COF est near 98.5 pct, placements 96.8 and marketings 96.7.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.49. Close above 5.49 suggest a change in momentum. KWN is near 5.39. MWN 6.01. Wheat futures up due to lower USD, C US rains, increase wheat feeding and reports that Russia largest wheat producing region declared state of emergency for lower wheat crop. This is the 3rd region to declare a state of wheat crop emergency. 3.00-5.00 inch rains are forecast for MO and S IL over next 7 days. EU wheat exports are down 33 pct while imports are down 18. Matif wheat futures are higher.
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