Partial Recovery in the US Dollar

CURRENCY FUTURES

 

The U.S. dollar index bounced after falling to a 5-month low yesterday.

The greenback has been under pressure in recent weeks due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates earlier than other major central banks.

Lower prices are likely for the U.S. dollar longer term.

The Nationwide House Price Index in the U.K. declined by 1.8% year-on-year in December 2023, compared with market expectations of a 1.4% decrease. This marked the 11th straight consecutive month of decline in home prices.

 

$100 dollar bill

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones stock index futures advanced to new record highs yesterday. However, prices are a little lower today.

The 8:45 central time December Chicago PMI is expected to be 50.0.

The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.

Stock index futures are likely to close on a firm note today.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are lower.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 16% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce its fed funds rate by 25 points at its January 31, 2024  policy meeting and an 84% probability of no change.

However, financial futures markets are currently suggesting the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its March 20, 2024 policy meeting.

Higher prices are likely for futures in January.

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now