Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 8.25
July 8, 2025
CRUDE OIL
July Crude Oil was higher overnight after a US court blocked some of the Trump tariffs, but the rally did not hold. The trade is still looking to the OPEC+ meeting this weekend where the group is expected to lift its quotas another 411,000 barrels per day in July, as it has already done for May and June. Also, refiners in Asia told Reuters that Saudi Arabia may cut its prices for Asian buyers in July by 50 cents to $1 per barrel. Last night’s API report showed US crude stocks -4.24 million barrels last week trade expectations of +100,000. Gasoline stocks were -528,000 barrels versus -500,000 expected, and distillate stocks were +1.3 million versus +500,000 expected. The EIA report will be release at 11:00 AM central today. Refinery runs are expected to be +0.5% to 91.2% as well. Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine have raised the possibility of new sanctions on Russian oil.
NATURAL GAS
July Natural Gas is lower this morning following a reversal lower yesterday. Reports that flows to a Freeport LNG export plant in Texas (the third largest in the US) declined on Wednesday may have sparked some selling. For the EIA Storage Report today, the Reuters poll has an average trade expectation calling +99 bcf last week (range +83 to +105). The five-year average change for the week is +100 bcf. As of last week, storage was down -12.8% from a year ago and 3.2% above the five-year average. Reuters reports that there were 80 total degree days last week compared with the 30-year normal of 61 for the period, which suggests there could have been a slight increase in consumption last week. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast calls for above normal temperatures across the eastern half of the US, which could increase natural gas demand for electrical consumption. The western US, from the western Plains to the west coast are expected to see mostly below or near normal temps.
PRODUCTS
Gasoline stocks were -528,000 barrels versus -500,000 expected for today’s EIA report, and distillate stocks were +1.3 million versus +500,000 expected.
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