Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. July Oats are down 23 cents and near 3.99 and correcting an overbought tech picture. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher and waiting for this weeks US Consumer price index. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Meat futures were higher led by cattle.
SN is near 12.22. Some still feel any US Midwest summer weather problem and SN could rally to 13.00 gap. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. Conab est Brazil soybean crop at 147.6 mmt vs 146.5 mmt previous and USDA 154. They did lower harvested acres due to southern flooding but market reaction was negative. Heavy rains though continue in S Brazil.. Fact US did not yet impose tariffs on imported China used cooking oil weighed on soyoil futures. US April NOPA soybean crush is est near 183.0 mil bu vs 196.4 in March and 173.2 lly. Soyoil stocks are est at 1,882 mil lbs vs 1,851 in March and 1,957 in April, 2023.
CN is near 4.69. Dalian corn futures were lower. Weekly US ethanol production is est near last week level. Stocks could see future decline. Conab est corn crop at 111.6 mmt vs 110.9 in April, 131 8 ly and USDA 122. Near 15 mmt drop in South America supply could increase demand for US exports. Showers could slow east and south US corn plantings but west should see better planting weather. Market needs to decide if US crop yield will average above 180 to keep futures from rallying or if funds need to cover additional shorts.
WN is near 6.78. KWN is near 6.89. Wax off wax on. Wheat futures are trying to decide if WN needs to trade over 7.00 on Russia and EU winter wheat crop worries or if demand is soft enough to pull futures lower. One group est Russia crop at 85 mmt vs USDA 88. That is friendly futures. Some showers are forecasted for parts of S Russia next week before a ridge of high pressure reforms. It continues to rain in west EU. Some suggested US farmers increase cash sales near 7.37 WZ, 7.41 KWZ and 7.60 MWZ. Prices above those levels would suggest World exporters stocks to use ratio could be record low. US SRW areas may be too wet, HRW forecast may be to dry and HRS weather could be just right.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
