ADMIS News
Ag Market View for December 5.2025
December 5, 2025
COFFEE
The nearby contract chart in nearby NY coffee produced a key reversal lower last week, which could spell the end of the long-term rally. The 50% tariff on Brazilian imports into the US has supported a rally to new contract highs in the December contract but the nearby chart failed to take out the high from February. The selloff last was instigated by increases in exchange margin requirements, but it is also possible that traders started to worry that the tariff theme had played itself out. Brazil’s crop may be smaller this year, but they still have to sell it. News last week that US Representatives Don Bacon and Ro Khanna plan to introduce bipartisan legislation that would exempt coffee products from any tariffs imposed after January 19, 2025 could help loosen supplies to the US, provided the law passes and it survives a veto. A case challenging the tariffs is headed to the Supreme Court, which may take not be heard until November and may not be decided upon until next year. Wetter weather is slowly returning to Brazilian growing areas, which is starting to ease concerns about the 2026/27 crop.
COTTON
December Cotton is lower this morning and is approaching the five-month lows from earlier in September. The US crop appears in good shape, especially in Texas. Growing conditions in China appear to be good as well, which could limit their import needs. The US export sales report on Thursday was a modest improvement on the previous week but was not very inspiring, and export prospects were not helped by the recovery rally in the dollar last week. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 35% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year versus a five-year average of 52% for this point in the season. World Weather Inc says that warm temperatures and limited rainfall in West Texas will help expedite the crop’s development. They said that some growth retardant has been applied to a part of the crop to limit new development while supporting the ongoing development of established bolls. Some yields outside of the southwestern dryland fields should be good. US Delta crops have dried out greatly resulting in some crop stress. Late season boll sizes may be smaller than usual, but the fiber quality is likely above average this year. There was an article in The Hill on Friday that warned of a new invasive species, the cotton jassid (also known as the two-spotted leafhopper), has appeared in Texas and that it that could be damaging to next year’s crop. Earlier this month Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller announced that the insect was found in a cotton crop in Fort Bend County, south of Houston. The insect arrived on a hibiscus plant shipped from South Florida.
COCOA
December Cocoa was lower overnight with rainfall patterns continuing to improve in west Africa. World Weather Inc. says routine rainfall is likely during the coming week to 10 days from Ivory Coast to Nigeria and Cameroon. All production areas will eventually be impacted and many will get rain multiple times. They say the precipitation will be sufficient in maintaining an improving trend in soil moisture and crop development after a delay in the start of the second rainy season.
SUGAR
March Sugar is back lower this morning following a modest bounce off contact lows on Thursday. The Brazilian cane crop is performing much better than it appeared to be earlier this summer, and there are strong expectations for the crops in India and Thailand. Last week, Indian sugar producers were asking the government to expand next year’s export quota to 2 million metric tons for 2025/26 from 1 million last year. There were also reports that India’s 2024/25 exports would not surpass 800,000 tons, but that was attributed to competition from Brazil and not to a lack of available supply. World Weather Inc says center south Brazil will get welcome rain during this week that could be beneficial to the upcoming cane crop. Drier weather is expected again next week.
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