Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is unch. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report and April 2 when new tariff reciprocal will be announced will be key to price volatility. Trump will talk with Putin today. US Central Bank meeting today.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.15. SK support is 10.00. 10.34 is resistance. SK-SN spread remains near -14/15. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. US soybean export basis is softer with more struggles to source enough non China vessels before higher freight cost. NOPA crush was lower than expected possibly due to cold weather. Soyoil stocks rose higher than expected. Brazil basis is lower on drop in China buying, Argentina crusher strike continues. S Brazil is dry. US soybean exports are up 9 pct vs ly and USDA up 8. Trade War, tariffs and global weather adds to trade uncertainty.
CORN
CK is near 4.56. 4.55 is key support. 4.65 is resistance. CK-CN spread widened to -10. Dalian corn futures were lower. Brazil remains dry. Second crop will need a rain for pollination. US NW Midwest is dry. Rains in ECB. Delta and SE. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers and now gulf to North Africa. US corn exports are up 33 pct vs ly and USDA up 7. China was a buyer of Brazil and Ukraine corn. China Jan-Feb corn imports were only 180 mt vs 6 mmt ly. New tariffs are negative to US corn demand to EU. Trade looking for lower 2025 corn prices if US farmers plant 94.0 mil corn acres and summer weather is normal.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.69. KWK is near 6.08. MWK is near 6.17. WK-WN spread out to -17. KWK-WK spread started year -10 and is now near +40. Wheat is supported by dry weather across US south plains and Black Sea. Wheat futures continue to struggle near key moving average resistance on concern about export demand and drop in World economies. KS,TX, CO and OK wheat crop ratings remain below last year. US wheat exports are up 18 percent vs USDA up 20. China Feb imports were well below last year.
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