Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SK is down. CK is down 1 cent and near 4.37. WK is up. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is unch near $82. Gold and silver are higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. CBOT will be closed Friday for holiday.
SK is near 12.02. There was no good reason for Mondays rally. Look for continued choppy trade into Thursday USDA report. US exports are down 19 pct vs ly vs USDA est of a 12 pct drop. Mystery southern US dairy cow is avian flu but USDA says milk is safe. Asia palmoil prices are higher on lower Indonesia supply. China soymeal futures were lower. Crush margins are also lower. Trade estimates US 2024 soybean acres near 86.5 mil vs 83.6 ly. Trade also estimates US March 1 soybean stocks near 1,828 mil bu vs 1,687 ly. After USDA acreage report trade will focus on China demand, US spring weather and Brazil final soybean crop size.
CK is near 4.37.Corn trade remains sideways on lack of new news. Look for continued choppy trade into Thursday USDA report. US exports are up 34 pct vs ly vs USDA est of a 26 pct increase. Mystery southern US dairy cow is avian flu but USDA says milk is safe. Trade will watch if this impacts feed demand. Some look for increase US farmer selling old crop stocks before planting. Trade estimates US 2024 corn acres near 91.8 mil vs 94.6 ly. Trade also estimates US March 1 corn stocks near 8,445 mil bu vs 7,396 ly. Brazil safrina crop conditions near normal but parts of Brazil is drier than normal. Recent attacks has damaged Ukraine energy infrastructure. This could slow logistics. This and China buying has helped Ukraine fob values. After USDA acreage report trade will focus on global demand and US spring weather
WK is near 5.56. Problems with Russia and 2nd largest Russia wheat exporter seems to be prices in the market. There is 400 mt of wheat exports waiting for export documents. Russia export prices though remain competitive to other origins. US S plains is dry but OK crop rating is 70 pct G/E vs 34 ly. KS is 53 vs 19 ly. Australia and Matif futures are lower looking for demand. This week is USDA acreage and stocks report. Trade estimates US 2024 wheat acres near 47.3 mil vs 49.6 ly. Trade also estimates US March 1 wheat stocks near 1,047 mil bu vs 941 ly. After USDA acreage report trade will focus on global demand, US/EU/Russia spring weather and Russia export pace.
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