Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. New Month same news. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is higher. 5 largest China Banks cut interest rates.
Soybean futures are higher. New month new buying. Dalian soybean were higher. Soymeal and soyoil were lower. USDA announced 132 mt new soybean sales to China. US new crop soybean export commit are down 24 pct vs ly. Thursday noon weather forecast added rains for US Midwest which weighed on soybean futures. EIA data suggest renewable diesel capacity has doubled vs ly. Brazil is dry in central and north with soybean plantings starting. Plantings could be unch from ly vs USDA up 4 pct.
Corn futures are marginally higher. Trade debating final US corn yield. US corn cif prices are up due to low Miss river water levels and reduces US competitiveness vs Brazil. There is still uncertainty over pace of Ukraine exports but bears feel grain exports will flow. New crop US corn export commit are down 5 pct vs last year. There is talk that Brazil corn acres could be down 8 pct vs USDA est of up 2 pct. Matif corn near 2 week low and lowest weekly close since before the Ukraine war.
Wheat futures are higher. Bulls feel dry Australia, Argentina, Canada and Black Sea weather could offer support. Bears feel slow US/EU exports and record Russia exports will continue to weigh on global wheat prices. US wheat export commit is down 23 pct vs ly. Estimates of Russia crop is now above 90 mmt with export forecast at a record 50 mmt vs 46 ly. WZ is down $2.00 from July high but near seasonal low. KWZ is also down $2.00. MWZ is down $1.91 but still $1.62 above WZ.
Enjoy the long holiday weekend.
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